Is Gen AI Building the Y2.5K Crisis?

This incident happened a few years ago while I was consulting for a company. A friend from the reporting team called me to help with an issue. A particular reporting table had not loaded that day, leading to an error in the reports that were generated that day. The team had looked and found that there was a mainframe-based application responsible for putting out a file which made its way to this reporting table, and that file had not arrived that day.

Identifying the source of the issue was simple; the real problem actually started there. There was no one on the team who knew how to use a mainframe or even log into one. Since I have some experience working on Mainframes, my friend requested me to help him resolve the issue. I requested access to the Mainframe and investigated the issue. The issue was simple - an incoming file had not arrived on time and so the JCL hadn't triggered. The fix was straightforward—to request the support team to rerun that Mainframe job.

A Symptom of a Larger Problem

It was a small fix, but the incident highlighted something bigger. On one hand, it proved again why Mainframes remain so dominant, even in this era of Cloud and AI. Programs written 40–50 years ago still run—and they just run. Yes, the screens are black and green, but they never failed to do what they were designed to do.

I might be wrong, but I believe the Y2K (Year 2000) crisis dealt the first significant blow to the image of the Mainframe. The crisis wasn't a failure of the Mainframe itself, but a byproduct of a different era—one where programmers slashed the '19' from the YEAR and used the 'MM-DD-YY' format for date simply to save on the costs of memory. Yet, Mainframes got all the bad rap. This was further compounded by the Mainframe getting overshadowed by newer-looking, colorful, and "cooler" technologies arriving with cooler names, too. We are now at a point where many major corporations on the planet use the mainframe in some form, yet there is hardly anyone left who understands the code.

1. The developers who built the code have now retired, and there is no one ready to take over from them to continue working on Mainframes.
2. Working on Mainframe is considered an “uncool” job. Everyone wants to work on newer tools where they can drag and drop to build an ETL pipeline or build colorful screens with images and videos.
3. Colleges have almost stopped teaching COBOL, JCL, and other Mainframe tools. I have not seen any coaching institutes teaching Mainframe skills either.
4. Mainframe-related knowledge on internet forums also seems to be scarce compared to newer programming languages and tools.
5. Libraries carry tons of books related to Cloud and AI, but hardly any related to the Mainframe.

 The AI Disconnect

Bottom line: companies are running on mainframe code, yet hardly anyone knows anything about the underlying programming language, the technology stack, or the business logic that is running behind the scenes.

CEOs and CTOs proudly talk about how AI is developing not just code snippets, but entire applications in minutes and hours— that otherwise took weeks and months with a big development team. Companies boast of how productivity has improved with AI doing all the coding with just a few prompts, saving them tons of money. AI platforms can now detect and heal code bugs without any human assistance. Once you lay out a basic idea, AI-based platforms can build and implement those solutions quickly with zero human intervention.

All this sounds fantastic, and it looks like the future is already here. But what does all this really mean? I think this only means that we are now adding loads and loads of AI-generated code, all running with little to zero human intervention. AI is becoming better every day, and this process will only hasten.

History Repeating Itself

Maybe 20–30 years down the line, we will see the "Mainframe scenario" repeat itself, where manual programming is considered uncool. Colleges will likely have stopped teaching programming as a subject, and libraries will be filled only with books related to prompt engineering, RAG, and other AI tool stacks.

My Prediction: The Y2.5K crisis of 2050

Imagine you are in 2050 and an AI-generated system has stopped working. The 'Prompt Engineers' of that era will stare at a strange set of lines (the actual programming code), trying to decipher what they really mean. We will have traded the 'black and green' screens of the 1960s for the 'black boxes' of 2050.

Perhaps this will be known as the 'Y2.5K' crisis: a world relying on a foundation of code that works perfectly until it doesn’t, only to realize we have let the skills required to look under the hood go extinct.

~Narendra V Joshi

Lesson from the backyard tree

The majestic tree stood steadfast in the yard;

A magnet for life, it struck an instant cord. 

With birds and squirrels, in its bounteous shade;

Into which the afternoon sun would dimly fade.

The shield of invincibility soon started to unveil;

The cold winds of fall stripped it to a leafy trail.

The tree which once stood against lightning and storm;

Was wilting in the cold air; losing its form.

The voracious growth and the annual leaf purge combine;

For the tree hides a secret, a profound design.

Behind every visible success and the silent toil;

Lies an invisible purge, where hard lessons coil.

~Narendra V Joshi

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I watch the tree in my backyard change with the seasons. In summer, it stands tall and full of strength. When autumn comes, it lets go of its leaves one by one, and by winter it is bare. Then spring arrives, and the tree returns even stronger, bursting with fresh growth.

This cycle is a lesson for us. Like the tree, we must let go of ego and old habits, unlearn what no longer serves us, and relearn new skills. Each time we do, we come back stronger, renewed, and ready to grow beyond where we were before.

GenAI for Work, Homework, and the Parenting Dilemma in the AI Age

I was stepping out after dropping my kids off at their class when I heard someone call my name. I turned around and saw two friends waving at me. It had been a while since I had last met them. We huddled together and exchanged pleasantries. We talked about the different classes our kids take and discussed our work lives. Our conversation then shifted to Generative AI and ChatGPT, and each of us expressed our amazement at ChatGPT. One of my friends mentioned that his eldest child had been using ChatGPT to complete school assignments. He was unhappy that the child relied on ChatGPT for everything and wasn’t thinking critically. His concern was that children are becoming lazy with GenAI and might lose their cognitive abilities by becoming overly dependent on ChatGPT. After a while, we said our goodbyes, and I started back home, still thinking about that conversation. My friend's statement about kids' dependence on ChatGPT kept echoing in my mind.

Should we allow kids to use ChatGPT at all?

Now, this is a tricky question. In my opinion, there is really no right or wrong answer, and I have points to support and counter both sides.

• First, my thoughts on why kids shouldn’t be allowed to use ChatGPT: My friend is right—ChatGPT can make kids lazy. This is the age when they need to learn and grow, developing their cognitive and intellectual abilities. They should acquire skills like time management, researching answers, discerning right from wrong, and applying their knowledge to achieve desired results. All of this comes through effort and focus. If kids rely on ChatGPT for instant answers, they might only learn to copy and paste. Is that what we want for them? What will kids with copy-paste skills do in life? You can’t copy-paste food into your stomach, nor can you live in a copy-paste house.

• But then, why shouldn’t kids use ChatGPT, especially if they are using it to supplement their other knowledge sources? Let’s look back at our high school and college days. Those were the days when computers were gaining prominence, and there was a lot of talk about how we, as kids, were becoming lazy because we depended on computers for everything. The so-called guardians of society called us out for losing our ability to write with a pen since we were more accustomed to typing on a keyboard. We were also blamed for dwindling library attendance because we could search for answers on the internet. Yet, for the most part, we turned out fine. Yes, we may not write as much as our forefathers did, but hey—I rarely use a pen except for signing a document or a check once every few months or years.

 

If you decide to allow kids to use ChatGPT, where do you draw the line? 

I think this is the question that parents should ask. I do not think it is wise as a parent to not allow my kids to use ChatGPT, because learning ChatGPT is also a skill. Who knows maybe there will AI engineers and AI engineering is a top job in the future; just like how we took up computers and software engineering is one of the top jobs now. But it is also important for us parents to ensure our kids are not overly dependent on ChatGPT. ChatGPT cannot be the first and only source of their information. It should be their last source of information and should be used more as a validation of their understanding, knowing very well that LLM’s too can make mistakes.

All this begs the most obvious question. What is that one career track that can survive ChatGPT?

Honestly, I have no idea which jobs are truly safe from AI. Tech magazines and sci-fi movies proclaim AI and robots will eventually replace every well-paying job we have today. According to experts, the only jobs considered safe are those requiring social and interpersonal skills—like caregivers.

So, where does that leave all the kids in school today? I have no clue.

On a lighter note, if there's one job I think AI won’t take over anytime soon, it's that of a temple priest. Temple priests have already proven themselves to be both COVID-proof and recession-proof. From what I know, they are well-paid and have a steady income. Sun or rain, we go to the temple. Whether life is smooth sailing or we’re going through a rough patch, we still go. And let’s be honest—no matter how advanced AI gets, our minds are not trained to bow and fall at a robots feet or accept prasadam from one.

So, if you're looking for an AI-resistant, recession-proof, and well-paying career, temple priesthood might just be the way to go!

~Narendra V Joshi

Beneath the Waves: A Journey to Calm

We went scuba diving during the recent winter break. The underwater experience was incredible. Despite swimming since I was a kid, deep sea diving was a completely unique experience. It felt like an entirely different world. The sharp contrast between the churning waves above and the serene calm below was a powerful metaphor for me. At first, every problem seems daunting and nearly impossible, like those waves. But when you confront each issue directly, you find a peaceful resolution, much like the ocean's depths. 

Put these thoughts into a poem - 

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The boat rocked hard as it cut through the water;
The rough sea hammered in an endless slaughter.
The nice breeze felt cold under the wet suit skin;
Only the anxious eyes screamed of the storm within.

The dive took me to a calm surreal world;
Where silence reigned, the bountiful landscape whirled.
The fishes and the lobsters only added to the gleam;
A realm of mystery within an eternal dream.

The waves and the depths are a metaphor of life.
The rocking waves akin the life's daily strife.
Diving head on into the tranquil depths we find;
Serene waters mirroring a calm clear mind.

~Narendra V Joshi

Only the memories

 To my father... 

I have come to accept, the fact you are gone.
Yet your presence in my heart, stays warm and strong.
In the stillness of my mind, when I feel you near;
I close my eyes and wipe a tear.

I see your smile, I hear your voice,

And those little moments make my heart rejoice.
Though you're no longer with me in sight,
Your memory shines in me, like a beacon in the night.

 I know you're watching from above,

And sending me your endless love.
With me every moment, with me every day,
Deep in my heart, you'll always stay.

~Narendra V Joshi

Where I think we should go from here

I was at a transit airport waiting for my connecting flight the other day. I could see the airport tarmac from the waiting area. The waiting area was crowded as it was almost time to board. The incoming flight had arrived and was waiting on the tarmac to come to our gate. There was something going on at our designated gate and so they had stopped the incoming flight from arriving at the gate. The flight was on the tarmac waiting for an open gate for almost like 15-20 mins.

I noticed the gentleman seated next to me staring at his watch often, and shake his head in despise. He would utter something beneath his breath and clearly looked irritated.

He turned to me pointing to the airplane outside the window and asked, “Do you know how much fuel a plane consumes just standing there on the tarmac?”. I knew it must be something big but had no idea and so shook my head for a ‘No’.  I thought he will say some gallons/minute but all he said was “it’s a loooot of fuel”. “It’s just a waste, you know”. I nodded my head for a ‘Yes’. It was indeed a lot of fuel waste for a large plane to sit and wait.

He continued. “We humans don’t deserve this planet”. “We cut trees, burn fossil fuels and are destroying our environment”. “Animals are going extinct at an astonishing rate”. I joined in and we spoke about how the environment is getting affected. At one point he said “the best thing for this planet is to have all humans go back to forests and live like how stone age people lived. Only then earth has a chance to survive”.

I knew I did not agree with that sentence but before I could say anything there was a gate change announcement. We stopped our conversation right there and we both walked separate ways to the new gate. I did not see him after that.

I came back home that night with his words still baking at the back of my mind.

Should humans go back to living in forests and caves to protect the earth?

Before we answer this question, we must first look at the conditions in which the cave men lived thousands of years back. Cave men lived in caves; in forests; midst nature. Yes, it feels good and maybe even inviting to see those beautiful pictures and videos of nature and animals on TV. The reality however is far from it. Those colorful birds in the videos are not singing a duet. They are on a hunt to tear open an insect and eat it while the insect is still struggling. That insect was not waiting for the bird but rather searching for a worm to bite in into pieces or swallow the worm whole. Nothing out there is rosy. There is a big game of survival being played all the time and this applied to the cave men too. Living in forests and caves is not an easy thing. There is no coffee when you wake up in the morning, no hot biriyani for lunch nor that plush mattress and pillow to sleep on in the night. There are no doctors on call nor police to protect you. The cave men lived in constant fear of wild animals, struggled under weather, died due to diseases as they did not have a cure. Life was tough for humans back then. It was for this reason cave men got together and formed civilizations. They realized different people in the group could create/build/grow different things and sharing helped everyone. This idea helped formed villages and cities and countries we now live in.

So, do we need to leave all this advancement and go back to living in caves? I don’t think so.

If not, then what about that gentleman’s words? If we do not want to go back to living in caves, then how can we protect our earth?

I think the answer to this question lies in understanding where we live and how we can make where we live a better place. We have become so dependent on fossil fuels and plastic; I don’t think we can suddenly stop using them completely. Maybe we should start by making small changes in our daily life. Let’s buy things only when we really need; not because there is a discount. Let’s eat only when we are hungry, and more importantly let’s finish the food on the plate every time and not throw anything. If we can avoid driving and walk instead, let’s try doing that. A quick read about recycling tells a completely different story of what is happening to the products we toss into a recycle bin. Very little, if not negligible, is getting recycled. What we put into recycling too is ending up in landfills. So, see if you can reuse, but the best is to avoid buying in the first place.

I think where we need to go from here is not back to forests and caves. Rather, where we need to go from here is doing our part a little bit; consciously; habitually, to make this earth we live in, a better place.

~Narendra V Joshi

Conflicts in the mind

The houses and trees were covered by a blanket of snow.
The ice beads in the sun made for a glittering show.
Inches of snow had covered everything in sight;
Except for the sky and the sun shining bright.
 
The blanket shrunk as the sun came up.
Draining the sleet from like a broken cup.
The awe and wonder were all but gone;
Laid bare a pickled and a battered lawn.
 
The sun and snow mimic conflicts in the mind
The snow alike the ego and of the malice kind.
Knowledge and humility can erase a burgeoning pride;
Just like the sun shrinking blankets on its ride.

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We had almost 5 inches of snow yesterday. It was a beautiful sight this morning with everything covered by a blanket of snow. The snow started to melt by the afternoon. I drew parallels between how the rising sun melted the snow, to how humility and humbleness in mind can melt ego and pride.    

~Narendra V Joshi